A Hedge Fund 



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President and Chief Executive Officer

Hedge Fund Manager
Motion Picture Producer

Financial Markets Strategist
Personal Finance

Business Finance and Management


                CALAFIA OAK FINANCIAL MANAGEMENT GROUP®                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        

                                                                     San Diego, California 92111                                                                                                                                         Phone (619) 208-6442







                                                                              August, 2020

Over the course of the past forty-three years, I have gained an extensive amount of experience in the fields of finance, law, technology, marketing, real estate and business. Following a law school education, I practiced corporate securities, personal finance and business law with a prestigious Wall Street law firm and subsequently with my own law office. Since 1990, I have pursued a career as a financial, business and real estate consultant. I specialize in business management, real estate, portfolio management and financial markets analysis, as well as a wide selection of important financial, marketing and management issues confronting clients. In addition, I lectured for two years on law, the legal system, terminology and business at Trinity Business College in San Francisco.

The majority of my clients have been individuals and companies involved in today's financial environment, such as individuals saving for, or already in retirement, or saving for a long-term goal, such as the purchase of a home or their children's education. My company’s clients are interested in safe, but productive, courses of business, based upon well-established and financially sound theories, experience, research and analysis. My role has been to act as my clients' financial or business manager, recommending and monitoring their business and investments for satisfaction, performance and safety -- tailored to their specific needs.


Although my achievements have been many, I feel that a strong endorsement of the fact that my fingers are on the pulse of the global economy is a brief summary of significant financial market forecasts that I have made during my career, but perhaps the most important single statement of all is this: I first began following finance, business and Wall Street upon discovering the Detroit newspaper's financial pages when I was only ten years old.

On August 27, 2019, I recommended that prudent investors should withdraw 100% from the equities markets around the globe. I felt that Wall Street's longest bull market would soon end, and that stocks were very vulnerable to any sort of black swan event. By the third week in March, 2020, the losses on the Dow were catastrophic in scale due to an historic black swan; namely, the coronavirus pandemic.

On June 19, 2015
, I posted a warning on my website concerning global stock investments. Although equity markets in the United States had experienced one of the most powerful bull markets over the course of the preceding six years, I advised my readers to move all tax deferred stock investments 100% into cash because of a host of financial and geopolitical pressures affecting markets across the planet. On June 18, 2015, the Dow Jones Industrial Average closed at a level of 18,115.84.

During the period of August 17, 2015 through Tuesday, August 26, 2015, while most of the world's investors were in panic mode because of the huge losses in the global equity markets, my total investments in global stocks at that time was approximately $300, such being the minimum amount required to hold open my handful of stock market mutual fund accounts.  My total stock market losses were $25.38 during this calamitous period. How was that possible? Answer: For the simple reason that I had anticipated the plunge and stepped away from stock investments in June, 2015. 

I have always felt that the prudent investor should move 100% into cash, in an insured deposit account in one or more strong, solvent American banks, if that person has the foresight to realize that the global financial markets are about to strike an iceberg. This advice would be particularly true of investments in tax exempt or tax deferred accounts, since no capital gain tax would be triggered by a sale. In August, 2015, the global financial markets did in fact strike an iceberg, with the Dow sinking to 15,666.44 on August 25, 2015. If the advice I gave to clients on June 19, 2015 was followed, then my clients would have saved themselves from a loss averaging 13.52%, by August 25, 2015. Restful sleep is far better than panic selling at the market opening on August 24th.

I remained in cash until September 28, 2015 – when I recommended total investment once again in the 30 Dow Industrial stocks, and I then remained in that recommendation until December 2, 2015, when I once again recommended the sale of the entire portfolio and the deposit of the funds in a U.S. bank. When the dust settled on December 2, 2015, the 2015 increase in value under this strategy was 11.2%, and that performance was achieved by avoiding most of the market downturns and capturing a large part of Wall Street's upward movement during the year. As a point of reference, the Dow Industrial stocks lost 2.2% of their value in 2015.

For the length of time that I have maintained the Calafia Oak Financial Management Group website, I have encouraged the struggle for peace in the Middle East, particularly with respect to the plight of the Palestinian people, as well as the countries of Iran and Israel. Specifically, regarding Iran, for years I have emphasized the concept of peace, because my sense of humanity tells me the best thing for everyone is if no military attacks anyone in this region -- neither the United States nor Israel should attack Iran over the trumped-up argument that Iran is developing nuclear weapons, although there are also many other reasons why peace should prevail in this sensitive part of the world. 

However, I felt that one reason for continually seeking peaceful resolutions for this area's many problems is the following proposition: If peace could be maintained among the countries in the Middle East, I am convinced that the price of oil could drop to a level that many commentators in earlier years would argue to be impossibly low -- namely, less than $39.00 per barrel. At a lower price, the next step will be to wait for the World to realize that a low price for oil is actually a good thing for the vast majority of individuals and businesses, the only downside being the fact that the oil industry's profits will obviously fall and tend to drag stock indices proportionally lower. No situation is absolutely perfect.

Since the United States withdrew from Iraq and the war in Afghanistan has wound down, irrespective of the rise of the ISIS organization, on August 24, 2015, the price of West Texas Intermediate oil plunged more than 6%, breaking below $38.00 per barrel. The worldwide oversupply of crude oil has been fed by Saudi Arabia's willingness to produce at its near capacity level, while at the same time the United States has successfully developed its fracking production to the level of multi-decade highs. This low price level is what happens when mankind is willing to get real about geopolitical issues and give peace a chance.

I recommended, and purchased, a substantial investment in precious metals mutual funds in April, 2006. At that time, gold was priced at $597 an ounce, and although the price appreciation has not been straight up, the steady increase in the value of gold has been a comfort to investors during what has been a very difficult period for many classes of investments. In September, 2011 the price of gold reached $1,920 an ounce. However, no tree grows to the sky, and, eventually, gold lost its luster, despite a huge marketing effort by gold merchants during the Obama Administration. These gold panderers were trying to torpedo the Obama economy by telling potential investors that a financial collapse was imminent, and everyone should flee to the alleged safety of gold . I, on the other hand, for several years during the Obama Administration counselled holding only the gold that was already in a family's portfolio, but not purchasing new positions in gold. However, in February, 2016, I recommended taking new positions in gold assets for the first time in several years. 

In November, 2003, I concluded that the California residential real estate market was heading for an asset-bubble shipwreck. What I initially found troubling was the frantic passion of buyers; however, what became even more alarming were the plummeting standards of many of the lenders who were fueling the land rush. Lenders were pushing loans that had virtually no income standards, loans with hard to comprehend interest rate terms, zero down payment requirements and misleading initial teaser rates. In addition, the Fed had started lowering interest rates in January, 2001 from 6.5% to a microscopic 1.0% by June, 2003, and would hold rates at that level until June, 2004 before hiking its short-term rate to 5.25% in June, 2006. This combination of factors led to what has become known as the subprime mortgage debacle. Since November, 2003 I have counseled many potential buyers regarding the dangers connected with entering the California real estate market during that period. The wisdom of such advice has been clearly established by the plummeting property values experienced throughout California during that era. As of April, 2008, I forecasted that a new investment in California real estate would incur short-term losses until 2010.

On numerous instances since the summer of 2000, I have cautioned clients to respect the capacity of the world’s financial markets to fall in value for extended periods of time with such wide breadth that even diversification might offer little protection. Plus: There is no situation so bad that it can't get worse®

In April, 1999 I forecast that the U.S. equities markets would experience another record setting year, which would be spearheaded by technology companies, after an unprecedented four consecutive years of double-digit gains. I forecast that many of the factors that would create monumental returns in equities would cause long-term U.S. bonds and money market funds to suffer miserable returns in comparison. As a consequence, I recommended most clients move 100% into equities -- an allocation of value-oriented mutual funds for safety, as well as growth, emerging and international markets, and technology funds invested in Internet companies. Among my mutual fund recommendations, the three best performers in 1999 had year-end returns of 216%, 175% and 119%, respectively.

In January, 1998 I forecast the eventual impeachment or resignation of President Clinton after release of initial disclosures regarding his affair with intern Monica Lewinsky.  In view of trade imbalances, recessionary pressures from abroad and potential conflict in the Middle East precipitated by the behavior of Iraq's Saddam Hussein, I chose to be conservative and retreated from equities for a large part of 1998. Against all odds, U.S. equity markets turned in spectacular returns in 1998. Consequently, for the first time since I started following financial markets in 1959, my model portfolio failed to outperform the Dow Jones Industrial Average on an annualized basis in 1998 -- a track record covering 38 years of financial markets forecasting.

I alerted my clients in July, 1997 of an impending avalanche in Asian stock markets that would be caused by brewing currency imbalances. On July 22, 1997, I withdrew all clients' tax-deferred investments from Asian, Latin American and European emerging markets prior to the onset of calamitous stock price declines. Several months later, threats of currency devaluations in Asia, and particularly in Hong Kong, caused world-wide stock market plunges on October 27, 1997.

I forecast in May, 1996 that the U.S. equity markets would enter into a notable, but short, correction when the S&P 500 Index reached a closing level of 679; the market correction began several weeks later when the S&P 500 Index closed at 678.51.

I sold 100% of long-term U.S. debt on March 6, 1996, thus avoiding one of the largest one-day losses in the history of the long-term U.S. debt market, which occurred on March 8, 1996.

I sold 100% of long-term U.S. debt in November, 1993, thus avoiding any losses in the interest rate up-turn that began immediately thereafter.

I recommended purchase of emerging markets equity mutual funds in June, 1992. That investment's profit was 73% over the next seventeen months.

I recommended the purchase of equity index puts several days prior to the Iraqi invasion of Kuwait in August, 1990. Due largely to the invasion, stock markets throughout the world fell precipitously, generating a profit with respect to equity index puts at in excess of 1,000% return in only three months.

I moved 100% of equities into cash in June, 1987 and remained in cash until after the spectacular stock market crash of October, 1987.

I recommended purchase of U.S. equities on August 8, 1982; several days later, one of the longest bull markets in U.S. stock market history began.

I forecast the imminent downturn of short-term interest rates in the United States in November, 1980.     A very lengthy and historic period of interest rate increases, which took the U.S. prime rate to an all-time high of 21.5%, turned downward shortly thereafter on January 2, 1981.


Financial Consultant -- Analysis of financial markets, business and macroeconomic trends in order to recommend appropriate management and marketing strategies.

Assisting clients to invest in corporate and government debt instruments, stocks, mutual funds and retirement plans, as well as explaining various financial investments or business management processes, and executing such strategies.

Financial analysis and marketing with respect to the securities of numerous companies and government agencies, tax-advantaged retirement plans, insurance products and real estate investments. Analysis and sale of life, disability and health insurance coverage, as well as a wide universe of annuities.

Debt management counseling for persons struggling with credit card debt and other forms of debt. Workouts and restructurings of problem residential mortgages.

Intensive investigations of complex facts, and the resolution of problem situations confronting businesses and individuals.

Former holder of National Association of Securities Dealers Series 7, Series 24 Registered Principal and Series 63 licenses; and former holder of California Department of Insurance life, disability and annuity contracts licenses.

Work as a financial markets strategist, making short-term investments in the Dow Jones Industrials, utilizing a self-designed Internet trading platform.

Real Estate Consultant -- I have thirty-five years of experience in a variety of real estate transactions, financings and construction projects, ranging from the purchase or sale of single family residences, advising clients on the operation of apartment complexes and large-scale condominium developments of as many as 1,000 units, to small-scale home improvement projects, as well as massive construction projects and financings valued in the billions of dollars. I hold a California Department of Real Estate salesperson license.

Residential and commercial mortgage financing, including the FHA Section 203(k) and the FHA Title I loan programs for rehabilitation of residential properties. Access to hundreds of loan programs for the purchase of residential properties, with loan amount available in excess of $1 million; refinancing of conventional, FHA or Veterans home loans; debt consolidations up to 125% of real estate value; home improvement loans; and loans secured by real estate for persons with less than perfect credit histories, including short sales of properties.

Business Consultant -- Advising clients on a multitude of business management and office operation issues, including internal accounting, payroll, accounts payable and receivable, collections, facilities operation and building maintenance. Preparation of operating budgets, tax preparation and all aspects of business planning. Marketing projects involving traditional retail stores, direct sales companies, Internet and telemarketing enterprises. Human resources work including orientation and procedural training, staff organization, knowledge of California and federal employment laws, as well as resolution of compliance issues. Management and planning of successful entertainment and professional sports careers. Analysis and implementation of life, disability and health insurance coverage, as well as annuities. Customer service and telemarketing experience, as well as teaching customer service and telemarketing techniques to office staff members.

Experienced in all aspects of the Internet and numerous business, financial and data base software systems, including Microsoft Office, Lotus 1-2-3, QuickBooks and a variety of specialized software packages.

Business Lawyer in New York -- Broad range of experience in credit financings, technology development and transfer, contract administration, acquisitions, corporate securities, personal finance and business law. Including researching, investigating, negotiating and writing, with extensive client contact, in the following principal areas: public, private and SBA financings for individuals, corporations and partnerships, municipal financings and federal and state securities law compliance (including prospectuses, tender offers, proxy statements and annual and periodic reports), involving Copyright and Patent laws; National Bank Act; Federal Deposit Insurance Act; Federal Reserve Act; Bank Holding Company Act; Truth in Savings Act; Truth in Lending Act; Fair Credit Reporting Act; Real Estate Settlement Procedures Act; Community Reinvestment Act; Right to Financial Privacy Act; Uniform Commercial Code; Bankruptcy Code; Securities Act of 1933; Securities Exchange Act of 1934; Investment Company Act of 1940, as amended by Investment Company Amendments Act of 1970; Investment Advisers Act of 1940; Securities Exchange Commission Rules of Practice; American and New York Stock Exchange Company Manuals; state Blue Sky Laws; and National Securities Markets Improvement Act of 1996. A wide variety of domestic and international commercial and criminal matters, including due diligence investigations, criminal prosecutions and defense work, technology development agreements, initial public offerings, loan and security agreements, leasings, licensing and sales agreements, employment contracts, and shareholders' agreements.

                                                                   CAREER SUMMARY

Owner, Calafia Oak Financial Management Group®
, in several California cities, 1990-Present

Lecturer,Trinity BusinessCollege, San Francisco, CA 1991-1993

NYNEX Corporation, Attorney, White Plains, NY 1986-1989

Business Attorney, New York, NY 1983-1990

Dewey, Ballantine, Bushby, Palmer & Wood, New York, NY 1978-1983
Captain, U.S. Air Force, Norton Air Force Base, CA 1974-1978
Dewey, Ballantine, Bushby, Palmer & Wood, New York, NY 1973-1974


Juris Doctor, New York University School of Law   1973
Member of Accelerated Program. I was an Honors student in Legal Writing and Research, Contracts I and II, Criminal Law and Administration, Corporations, Law of Environmental Control, Land Use Planning and Development, New York Practice, Conflict of Laws, Corporate Finance and Antitrust.

Bachelor of Arts, University of Michigan   1970
Selected by the University Activities Council as one of 150 Outstanding Freshmen in 1966, and elected by the University student body to act as a Representative to the Student Government Council in 1969. Areas of principal scholastic concentration: Economics, History, Psychology and Political Science.

Cranbrook Prep School , Bloomfield Hills, Michigan        1966
Notably, many very successful men attended this boarding school, including many successful businessmen and politicians, a Pulitzer prize winner, the former head of ABC television and Mitt Romney, formerly the governor of Massachusetts and a candidate for President of the United States on the Republican ticket in 2008 and 2012. In 1963-1964, Mitt lived across the hallway from me in the dormitory when I was in the 10th grade and Mitt was in the 11th grade

                                OTHER PROFESSIONAL ACCOMPLISHMENTS

Performed work on several historic corporate transactions, including one of the first grain transactions between a United States company and the People's Republic of China in 1973, the $6.8 billion takeover of Conoco Inc. in 1981, which at that time was the largest corporate merger in history, and the financing and construction of the Alaska Pipeline in 1973. The total career value of the financings and business transactions upon which I have worked exceeds $12 billion.

In 1976, I represented an African-American man who alleged that his job supervisor, a civilian employee of the U. S. Air Force, subjected him to racist comments, jokes and slurs; the supervisor vigorously denied the allegations. Following my investigation and representation during a factual hearing, my client won the suit when the Secretary of the Air Force agreed with my position that the objectionable conduct was proven by the evidence that I had uncovered and presented during trial. This was the first time in the history of the Air Force that a complainant had won a suit based solely on racist slurs.

White House appointment as a Presenting Attorney of the Presidential Clemency Board, in Washington D.C., with respect to the Vietnam conflict, in April, 1975.

Author of "The Entrepreneur’s Edge" -- a 230-page book of legal, tax, business and practical requirements affecting the formation and operation of entrepreneurial level businesses.

I performed significant work in 1986 and 1987 on the $100 million acquisition by NYNEX Corporation, the Northeast U.S. telephone company, of BIS Banking Systems Ltd., a multinational corporation specializing in the most popular and widespread international commercial banking system computer software. BIS Banking Systems was based in London, with offices in many countries around the world. During the course of my work on this acquisition, I uncovered the fact that one customer of BIS Banking Systems was the infamous Volkskas People's Bank of apartheid South Africa. The Volkskas was the financial arm of the extremist Broederbond faction of the South African National Party, which was the creator of the racist system of government in South Africa. The Volkskas was part of the financial strength behind South Africa's tyrannical military and police complex. Immediately following the acquisition of BIS Banking Systems, on the basis of my research, investigation and recommendation, NYNEX Corporation's top management decided to terminate any and all business dealings with the Volkskas and demanded the surrender of all BIS Banking System software in South Africa, thus frustrating the ability of South Africa's banks to interface and do business with computerized banking systems utilized by much of the financial world in Europe, Asia, North and South America, as well as other parts of Africa.

I have lectured and written extensively with respect to finance, business, tax and legal matters before many audiences and on behalf of hundreds of individual, partnership and corporate clients for more than forty-three years.


Allen Temple Baptist Church (member since 1991); Alpha Phi Alpha Fraternity (co-founder of Mu Xi Lambda Chapter, San Bernardino, CA in 1977); Bethel Investment Club, San Francisco, CA (financial representative and co-founder in 1993); Boy Scouts of America; Cranbrook Prep School Upward Bound Program, 1966 and 1968; Cranbrook Prep School Debating Team; Cranbrook Prep School Opus Literary Publication; Cranbrook Prep School Track Team, Michigan State Champions in 1966; Cranbrook Prep School Winter Horizons Pre-teen Program in 1966 and 1968; President and Chief Executive Officer of Lifelong Health Biotechnology, Incorporated in 2012; Lockbourne Air Force Base Judo Club; Student Government Council of the University of Michigan, campus-wide elected member in 1969-1970; Michigan Tae Kwon Do Association, awarded Sixth Gup in 1969; New York University Intercollegiate Tae Kwon Do Team (highly successful brown belt competitor in 1971, while a first-year law school student); Norton Air Force Base Karate Club in 1974; Oakland Tribune Newspaper Award for first-place marketing performance in 1991; Odd-Lot Investment Club, Oakland, CA (co-founder in 1994); Reid Writing Awards recipient, Detroit, MI in 1964, 1965 and 1966; Instructor of Tae Kwon Do in Office of Economic Development Teen Program, Ypsilanti, MI in 1970; University of Michigan Black Action Movement, Ann Arbor, MI (co-founder in 1970); Featured speaker, National Bar Association Regional Conference, New York, NY in 1981; New York State Administrative Law Hearing Officer in 1984-1986; Tuskegee Airmen, San Francisco Bay Area Chapter; World Tae Kwon Do Association, 319th black belt recipient in the United States in 1972; National Treasurer for the U.S. Marine Corps Veterans Association for 2009-2015; and a White House commendation for meritorious service to the United States and the Administration of President Ford in connection with the Presidential Clemency Board in 1975.



























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